How will climate change and forest harvesting influence the habitat quality of two culturally salient species?

Boreal landscapes face increasing disturbances which can affect cultural keystone species, i.e. culturally salient species that shape in a major way the cultural identity of a people. Given their importance, the fate of such species should be assessed to be able to act to ensure their perennity. We assessed how climate change and forest harvesting will affect the habitat quality of Rhododendron groenlandicum and Vaccinium angustifolium, two cultural keystone species for many Indigenous peoples in eastern Canada. We used the forest landscape model LANDIS-II in combination with species distribution models to simulate the habitat quality of these two species on the territories of three Indigenous communities according to different climate change and forest harvesting scenarios. Climate-sensitive parameters included wildfire regimes as well as tree growth. Moderate climate change scenarios were associated with an increased proportion of R. groenlandicum and V. angustifolium in the landscape, the latter species also responding positively to severe climate change scenarios. Harvesting had a minimal effect, but slightly decreased the probability of presence of both species where it occurred. According to the modeling results, neither species is at risk under moderate climate change scenarios. However, under severe climate change, R. groenlandicum could decline as the proportion of deciduous trees would increase in the landscape. Climate change mitigation strategies, such as prescribed fires, may be necessary to limit this increase. This would prevent the decrease of R. groenlandicum, as well as contribute to preserve biodiversity and harvestable volumes.

Comprehensive assessment of copper's effect on marine organisms under ocean acidification and warming in the 21st century.

Copper (Cu) has sparked widespread global concern as one of the most hazardous metals to aquatic animals. Ocean acidification (OA) and warming (OW) are expected to alter copper's bioavailability based on pH and temperature-sensitive effects; research on their effects on copper on marine organisms is still in its infancy. Therefore, under representative concentration pathways (RCP) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5, we used the multiple linear regression-water quality criteria (MLR-WQC) method to assess the effects of OA and OW on the ecological risk posed by copper in the Ocean of East China (OEC), which includes the Bohai Sea, Yellow Sea, and East China Sea. The results showed that there was a positive correlation between temperature and copper toxicity, while there was a negative correlation between pH and copper toxicity. The short-term water quality criteria (WQC) values were 1.53, 1.41, 1.30 and 1.13 µg·L-1, while the long-term WQC values were 0.58, 0.48, 0.40 and 0.29 µg·L-1 for 2020, 2099-RCP2.6, 2099-RCP4.5 and 2099-RCP8.5, respectively. Cu in the OEC poses a moderate ecological risk. Under the current copper exposure situation, strict intervention (RCP2.6) only increases the ecological risk of copper exposure by 20 %, and no intervention (RCP8.5) will increase the ecological risk of copper exposure by nearly double. The results indicate that intervention on carbon emissions can slow down the rate at which OA and OW worsen the damage copper poses to marine creatures. This study can provide valuable information for a comprehensive understanding of the combined impacts of climate change and copper on marine organisms.

Climate Change and Mental Health: An Interactive Educational Session.

Introduction: Climate change is the single biggest health threat facing humanity, with direct and indirect impacts on mental health, yet health impacts of climate change remain notably absent from most medical school curricula. We describe a timely interactive educational session on climate change and mental health that was implemented and studied on a medical student clinical psychiatry rotation. Methods: We developed a 1-hour introductory session on the mental health impacts of climate change and potential solutions. The session was delivered to third-year medical students on their 4-week clinical psychiatry rotation and included pre- and postsession survey questions assessing their knowledge, comfort, and readiness regarding the topic. Results: Seventy students participated in the session, with 49 students completing the pre- and postsession surveys, giving a response rate of 70%. The average score for the four Likert-scale questions on the survey increased from 2.7 presession to 3.9 postsession on a 5-point scale (1 = strongly disagree, 5 = strongly agree). All questions displayed statistically significant improvement. Qualitative analysis identified knowledge gained about the mental health impacts of climate change as the most important aspect of the session to students. Discussion: The introductory session effectively filled an urgent need in medical education curricula regarding climate change's effects on human health. Overall, distribution of and improvement upon this timely teaching content can serve a valuable role in medical student education as the effects of climate change, particularly on mental health, continue to progress throughout the century.

Extended ozone depletion and reduced snow and ice cover-Consequences for Antarctic biota.

Stratospheric ozone, which has been depleted in recent decades by the release of anthropogenic gases, is critical for shielding the biosphere against ultraviolet-B (UV-B) radiation. Although the ozone layer is expected to recover before the end of the 21st century, a hole over Antarctica continues to appear each year. Ozone depletion usually peaks between September and October, when fortunately, most Antarctic terrestrial vegetation and soil biota is frozen, dormant and protected under snow cover. Similarly, much marine life is protected by sea ice cover. The ozone hole used to close before the onset of Antarctic summer, meaning that most biota were not exposed to severe springtime UV-B fluxes. However, in recent years, ozone depletion has persisted into December, which marks the beginning of austral summer. Early summertime ozone depletion is concerning: high incident UV-B radiation coincident with snowmelt and emergence of vegetation will mean biota is more exposed. The start of summer is also peak breeding season for many animals, thus extreme UV-B exposure (UV index up to 14) may come at a vulnerable time in their life cycle. Climate change, including changing wind patterns and strength, and particularly declining sea ice, are likely to compound UV-B exposure of Antarctic organisms, through earlier ice and snowmelt, heatwaves and droughts. Antarctic field research conducted decades ago tended to study UV impacts in isolation and more research that considers multiple climate impacts, and the true magnitude and timing of current UV increases is needed.

Assessing the impacts of crop production on climate change: An in-depth analysis of long-term determinants and policy implications.

This research investigates the long-term determinants of carbon emissions in three diverse regions-Europe and Central Asia (ECA), Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), and the Middle East and North Africa (MENA)-spanning 1990 to 2020. Utilizing advanced econometric models and analyses, including the Regularized Common Correlated Effects Estimator (rCCE), Common Correlated Effects Estimator (CCE), and Mean-Group (MG) approach, the study explores the intricate relationships between carbon emissions, crop production, emissions per agricultural production, energy consumption, renewable energy consumption, per capita GDP, and population. Region-specific nuances are uncovered, highlighting the varying dynamics: ECA exhibits intricate and non-significant relationships, SSA showcases significant effects of population dynamics and green technology adoption, and the MENA region reveals a nuanced interplay between emissions per agricultural production.The findings underscore the universal efficacy of green technology adoption for mitigation. Strategies for mitigating carbon emissions in the agricultural sector require diversified energy transition approaches, emphasizing efficiency enhancements, green technology adoption, and tailored population management strategies based on regional intricacies. Counterfactual simulations indicate the potential efficacy of strategic measures targeting crop production to reduce carbon emissions, while acknowledging the nuanced relationship between economic growth and emissions. Policymakers are urged to recognize the persistence in emission patterns, emphasizing the importance of targeted interventions to transition towards more sustainable trajectories. Overall, the research provides essential insights for crafting effective policies at both regional and global scales to address the complexities of climate change mitigation in the agricultural sector.

Climate change impacts on mesophotic regions of the Great Barrier Reef.

Climate change projections for coral reefs are founded exclusively on sea surface temperatures (SST). While SST projections are relevant for the shallowest reefs, neglecting ocean stratification overlooks the striking differences in temperature experienced by deeper reefs for all or part of the year. Density stratification creates a buoyancy barrier partitioning the upper and lower parts of the water column. Here, we mechanistically downscale climate models and quantify patterns of thermal stratification above mesophotic corals (depth 30 to 50 m) of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR). Stratification insulates many offshore regions of the GBR from heatwaves at the surface. However, this protection is lost once global average temperatures exceed ~3 °C above preindustrial, after which mesophotic temperatures surpass a recognized threshold of 30 °C for coral mortality. Bottom temperatures on the GBR (30 to 50 m) from 2050 to 2060 are estimated to increase by ~0.5 to 1 °C under lower climate emissions (SSP1-1.9) and ~1.2 to 1.7 °C under higher climate emissions (SSP5-8.5). In short, mesophotic coral reefs are also threatened by climate change and research might prioritize the sensitivity of such corals to stress.

Large biomass reduction effect on the relative role of climate, fishing, and recruitment on fish population dynamics.

Many species around the world have collapsed, yet only some have recovered. A key question is what happens to populations post collapse. Traditionally, marine fish collapses are linked to overfishing, poor climate, and recruitment. We test whether the effect on biomass change from these drivers remains the same after a collapse. We used a regression model to analyse the effect of harvesting, recruitment, and climate variability on biomass change before and after a collapse across 54 marine fish populations around the world. The most salient result was the change in fishing effect that became weaker after a collapse. The change in sea temperature and recruitment effects were more variable across systems. The strongest changes were in the pelagic habitats. The resultant change in the sensitivity to external drivers indicates that whilst biomass may be rebuilt, the responses to variables known to affect stocks may have changed after a collapse. Our results show that a general model applied to many stocks provides useful insights, but that not all stocks respond similarly to a collapse calling for stock-specific models. Stocks respond to environmental drivers differently after a collapse, so caution is needed when using pre-collapse knowledge to advise on population dynamics and management.

Taking a trauma and adversity perspective to climate change mental health.

The European Journal of Psychotraumatology has had a long interest in advancing the science around climate change and traumatic stress. In this special issue, we include papers that responded to a special call in this area. Six major themes emerge from these papers and together they contribute to trauma and adversity model of the mental health impacts of climate change. We argue that, in addition to individual vulnerability factors, we must consider the (i) cumulative trauma burden that is associated with exposure to ongoing climate change-related impacts; (ii) impact of both direct and indirect stressors; (iii) individual and community protective factors. These factors can then guide intervention models of recovery and ongoing resilience.

Trauma and adversity are central to understanding the mental health impacts of climate change.We present a trauma and adversity model of the mental health impacts of climate change.

Public perceptions on carbon removal from focus groups in 22 countries.

Carbon removal is emerging as a pillar of governmental and industry commitments toward achieving Net Zero targets. Drawing from 44 focus groups in 22 countries, we map technical and societal issues that a representative sample of publics raise on five major types of carbon removal (forests, soils, direct air capture, enhanced weathering, and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage), and how these translate to preferences for governance actors, mechanisms, and rationales. We assess gaps and overlaps between a global range of public perceptions and how carbon removal is currently emerging in assessment, innovation, and decision-making. In conclusion, we outline key societal expectations for informing assessment and policy: prioritize public engagement as more than acceptance research; scrutiny and regulation of industry beyond incentivizing innovation; systemic coordination across sectors, levels, and borders; and prioritize underlying causes of climate change and interrelated governance issues.

Climate change and its impact on asthma.

ABSTRACT: Earth's climate is changing at an unprecedented pace, primarily due to anthropogenic causes including greenhouse gas emissions. Evidence shows a strong link between climate change and its effects on asthma. Healthcare professionals must be educated to advocate for and lead effective strategies to reduce the health risks of climate change.

Exposure to Concurrent Heatwaves and Ozone Pollution and Associations with Mortality Risk: A Nationwide Study in China.

BACKGROUND: Concurrent extreme events are projected to occur more frequently under a changing climate. Understanding the mortality risk and burden of the concurrent heatwaves and ozone (O3) pollution may support the formulation of adaptation strategies and early warning systems for concurrent events in the context of climate change. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to estimate the mortality risk and excess deaths of concurrent heatwaves and O3 pollution across 250 counties in China. METHODS: We collected daily mortality, meteorological, and air pollution data for the summer (1 June to 30 September) during 2013-2018. We defined heatwaves and high O3 pollution days, then we divided the identified days into three categories: a) days with only heatwaves (heatwave-only event), b) days with only high O3 pollution (high O3 pollution-only event), and c) days with concurrent heatwaves and high O3 pollution (concurrent event). A generalized linear model with a quasi-Poisson regression was used to estimate the risk of mortality associated with extreme events for each county. Then we conducted a random-effects meta-analysis to pool the county-specific estimates to derive the overall effect estimates. We used mixed-effects meta-regression to identify the drivers of the heterogeneity. Finally, we estimated the excess death attributable to extreme events (heatwave-only, high O3 pollution-only, and concurrent events) from 2013 to 2020. RESULTS: A higher all-cause mortality risk was associated with exposure to the concurrent heatwaves and high O3 pollution than exposure to a heatwave-only or a high O3 pollution-only event. The effects of a concurrent event on circulatory and respiratory mortality were higher than all-cause and nonaccidental mortality. Sex and age significantly impacted the association of concurrent events and heatwave-only events with all-cause mortality. We estimated that annual average excess deaths attributed to the concurrent events were 6,249 in China from 2017 to 2020, 5.7 times higher than the annual average excess deaths attributed to the concurrent events from 2013 to 2016. The annual average proportion of excess deaths attributed to the concurrent events in the total excess deaths caused by three types of events (heatwave-only events, high O3 pollution-only events, and concurrent events) increased significantly in 2017-2020 (31.50%; 95% CI: 26.73%, 35.53%) compared with 2013-2016 (9.65%; 95% CI: 5.67%, 10.81%). Relative excess risk due to interaction revealed positive additive interaction considering the concurrent effect of heatwaves and high O3 pollution. DISCUSSION: Our findings may provide scientific basis for establishing a concurrent event early warning system to reduce the adverse health impact of the concurrent heatwaves and high O3 pollution. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP13790.

Using the Red List of Ecosystems and the Nature-based Solutions Global Standard as an integrated process for climate change adaptation in the Andean high mountains.

Under anthropogenic pressures and climate change, most ecosystems are showing signs of reduced resilience. Unfortunately, some are more at risk of collapse and, without interventions, they may lose biodiversity, ecological integrity and ecosystem services. Here, we describe two tools that were developed under the auspices of the International Union for Conservation of Nature, the Red List of Ecosystems and the Nature-based Solutions Global Standard, and their capacity to first identify the ecosystems at risk of collapse in a nation and then develop solutions based on nature to improve their resilience. Nature-based solutions include, for example ecosystem-based adaptation, where solutions are developed to meet the needs of the local people while protecting nature to ensure greater resilience of the social-ecological system, not only the natural ecosystem. We discuss through a case study in the Andean high mountains and páramo social-ecological system how these approaches have been used in Colombia. We then discuss lessons learned and challenges that may reduce the capacity of a community to initiate such interventions, such as national policies and funding restrictions. We also discuss through another early case in Ecuador the importance to adapt these types of interventions to the geographical and cultural context of the social-ecological systems. This article is part of the theme issue 'Bringing nature into decision-making'.

Connecting human behaviour, meaning and nature.

Much of the discourse around climate change and the situation of diverse human societies and cultures in the Anthropocene focuses on responding to scientific understanding of the dynamics of the biosphere by adjusting existing institutional and organizational structures. Our emerging scientific understanding of human behaviour and the mechanisms that enable groups to achieve large-scale coordination and cooperation suggests that incrementally adjusting existing institutions and organizations will not be sufficient to confront current global-scale challenges. Specifically, the transaction costs of operating institutions to induce selfish rational actors to consider social welfare in their decision-making are too high. Rather, we highlight the importance of networks of shared stories that become real-imagined orders-that create context, meaning and shared purpose for framing decisions and guiding action. We explore imagined orders that have contributed to bringing global societies to where they are and propose elements of a science-informed imagined order essential to enabling societies to flourish in the Anthropocene biosphere. This article is part of the theme issue 'Bringing nature into decision-making'.

A toxicological perspective on climate change and the exposome.

Climate change is accompanied by changes in the exposome, including increased heat, ground-level ozone, and other air pollutants, infectious agents, pollens, and psychosocial stress. These exposures alter the internal component of the exposome and account for some of the health effects of climate change. The adverse outcome pathways describe biological events leading to an unfavorable health outcome. In this perspective study, I propose to use this toxicological framework to better describe the biological steps linking a stressor associated with climate change to an adverse outcome. Such a framework also allows for better identification of possible interactions between stressors related to climate change and others, such as chemical pollution. More generally, I call for the incorporation of climate change as part of the exposome and for improved identification of the biological pathways involved in its health effects.

The drivers of intraspecific trait variation and their implications for future tree productivity and survival.

Forests are facing unprecedented levels of stress from pest and disease outbreaks, disturbance, fragmentation, development, and a changing climate. These selective agents act to alter forest composition from regional to cellular levels. Thus, a central challenge for understanding how forests will be impacted by future change is how to integrate across scales of biology. Phenotype, or an observable trait, is the product of an individual's genes (G) and the environment in which an organism lives (E). To date, researchers have detailed how environment drives variation in tree phenotypes over long time periods (e.g., long-term ecological research sites [LTERs]) and across large spatial scales (e.g., flux network). In parallel, researchers have discovered the genes and pathways that govern phenotypes, finding high degrees of genetic control and signatures of local adaptation in many plant traits. However, the research in these two areas remain largely independent of each other, hindering our ability to generate accurate predictions of plant response to environment, an increasingly urgent need given threats to forest systems. I present the importance of both genes and environment in determining tree responses to climate stress. I highlight why the difference between G versus E in driving variation is critical for our understanding of climate responses, then propose means of accelerating research that examines G and E simultaneously by leveraging existing long-term, large-scale phenotypic data sets from ecological networks and adding newly affordable sequence (-omics) data to both drill down to find the genes and alleles influencing phenotypes and scale up to find how patterns of demography and local adaptation may influence future response to change.